Aside from a mortar here and there, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah seems to be taking hold — although all parties agree that restraint is barely contained underneath the hair-trigger nerves of soldiers on both sides. Israel’s Olmert tries to spin this as a victory for Israel, but his people seem skeptical. Nasrallah more credibly calls it a victory for Hezbollah.

More credibly, you ask? How can it be a victory for Hezbollah if its army is being pushed out of southern Lebanon and replaced by the Lebanese and a European peacekeeping force? The simple answer is that Hezbollah managed to prove to the Arab-Islamic world that Israel’s military might is not capable of simply rolling over its foes. The victory, unfortunately, is in showing the dents in the Israeli armor.

Meanwhile, in Iran:

Alongside the celebrations, senior religious figure Ahmad Khatamei announced Tuesday that “if the United States or Israel attack Iran, Iran will shoot rockets at Tel Aviv.”

He added: “The missiles shot by Hizbullah into Israel had a range of 70 kilometers and managed to turn Israel into a ‘ghost country.’ If the United States is considering attacking us, it must take into account the Iranian Shihab-3 missiles, whose range is 2,000 kilometers, and can hit the center of Tel Aviv.”

Full article here. The bluster is, of course, consistent with the oft-repeated aim of Iran to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth. My immediate guess, however, is that the bluster is all we’re going to get out of Iran. ‘August 22’-ology aside, Iran’s unspoken goal is to fire a warning shot across the bow of the West, and they’re doing that loud and clear now. Nasrallah, on the other hand, is a more dangerous threat in the short term — his success in showing Israel’s weaknesses will no doubt make him even more of a hero in the Shi’ite world, and may elevate him beyond the status of leading a guerilla group within a state, to some position of actual authority within Lebanon. If that happens, then we will really be talking about a fragile peace.

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